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10 May 2018, Volume 35 Issue 9
    

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  • The Effect of Institutional Investors on the Performance of New Ventures：a Moderated Mediation Model
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 9-15. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060496
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    The employee's creative performance is the main source of promoting innovation, and shaping creative feedback environment can induce creative performance and get competitive advantage of enterprises.On the basis of the method of takingroot theory, the first study develops the multidimension conception of creative feedback environment in China context.The second study is to compile a measurement table of the creative feedback environment which include supervisor and coworker creative feedback environment.By means of the factor analysis, of the nature of test, the second study tests and verifies the best of the twodimension conception of the creative feedback environment and the reliability and validity of the scale are good.By comparison study, creative feedback environment perceived by employee works in an innovative enterprise is significantly better than who works another enterprise and the effect of creative feedback environment on creative performance is significantly more than feedback environment's effect.

    . The Effect of Institutional Investors on the Performance of New Ventures：a Moderated Mediation Model[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 9-15., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060496.

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  • Research on Creative Feedback Environment's Concept Development, Validation and Comparison
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 16-22. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2018030301
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    This paper mainly studies the relationship and mechanism between cluster network structure,absorptive capacity and technological innovation performance.According to the statistical analysis of 209 enterprise questionnaires in some industrial clusters,the results show that:the cluster network structure has a positive impact on absorptive capacity.Network size,network centricity and network strength positively affect the potential absorptive capacity and realistic absorptive capacity of enterprises respectively;Both latent absorptive capacity and real absorptive capacity have a significant positive impact on technological innovation performance;Technology innovation performance is positively correlated.However,in addition to the size of the network,the network centricity and network strength do not directly affect innovation,but indirectly affect innovation performance through absorptive capacity as an intermediary variable；In the relationship among cluster network structure,absorptive capacity and technological innovation performance,potential and actual absorptive capacity are the key factors to play the advantages of network structure and enhance innovation performance.

    . Research on Creative Feedback Environment's Concept Development, Validation and Comparison[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 16-22., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2018030301.

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  • Relationship between Cluster Network Structure and Technology Innovation Performance:Is Absorptive Ability a Mediating Variable
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 23-31. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060308
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    Agricultural Science and Technology Park(ASTP) is an important node in agricultural science and technology innovation system. It is of great significance to promote the rapid development of agricultural modernization by optimizing its spatial layout. The National Agricultural Science and Technology Park(NASTP) is the agricultural science and technology and industrial complex of the national planning and construction, which is a new organization form of agricultural science and technology innovation achievements transformation and technology diffusion in the new period. We analyzed the NASTP's temporal-spatial evolution process for the period of 2001-2016 based on the standard deviation ellipse method. The spatial distribution characteristics and agglomeration level were calculated by applying the nearest distance method and kernel density estimation. The research shows that the different development stages of the NASTP indicates the distribution feature was concentrated after the initial decentralize and form five concentrated areas. In general, gathering area focused on the east region and dispersion area focused on the west region. The driving mechanism of spatial pattern of the NASTP was explored by the regression model. The result reveals it is mainly related to the agricultural infrastructure, the scale of agricultural production, the scale of rural population, the degree of agricultural industrialization, the level of social and economic development, the ability of scientific and technological innovation. Beyond that, agricultural development polity is the important factor affecting the spatial layout of the NASTP.

    . Relationship between Cluster Network Structure and Technology Innovation Performance:Is Absorptive Ability a Mediating Variable[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 23-31., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060308.

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  • The Spatial Layout of National Agricultural Science and Technology Park and Influencing Factors
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 32-41. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060678
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    To investigate and understand the development situation, problems and future strategy for Chinese local governments' role transition in regional innovation system under the era of 'new normal',this paper constructs the research framework based on theories related to innovation system, and made a case study of Suzhou industry park by archives research, in-depth interviews and focus group. It is found that the government should pay attention to the development of universities, enterprise, the universityindustry cooperation, the innovation and entrepreneurial intermediaries, and focus on promoting the active interaction and deep cooperation among various institutions in the region. The role of local governments should transit from "the protagonist" to" being behind the scenes", should be gradually weakened the function of leading and controlling, and strengthen function of stimulating, intermediating and service. Also, the policies strategy should be based on both the local and the stage specifics.〖JP〗

    . The Spatial Layout of National Agricultural Science and Technology Park and Influencing Factors[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 32-41., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060678.

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  • Strategy Research for Chinese Local Governments' Role Transition in Regional Innovation System under the Era of 'New Normal'
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 42-47. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060087
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    For recent years, new R&D institutions are increasingly becoming a new motivation for the innovation driven development of Chinese economy. Taking Guangdong as an example, this paper takes an empirical study on the factors affecting innovational performance of Chinese new R&D institutions by using hierarchical regression analysis.〖JP〗 The study shows that: from the perspective of R&D inputs，there is a significant positive correlation between the R&D expenditures and innovational performance, yet the investments on R&D personnel have no significant influence on the innovational performance of R&D institutions; from the perspective of government support, governmental special subsidy and tax exemption and reduction exert positive effects on innovational performance; from the perspective of establishment property，the innovational performance of entrepreneurial new R&D institutions is better than that of the governmentaffiliated ones．

    . Strategy Research for Chinese Local Governments' Role Transition in Regional Innovation System under the Era of 'New Normal'[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 42-47., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060087.

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  • An Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting Innovational Performance of the New R&D Institutions in China
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 48-53. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080467
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    Based on the strategic planning of made in Guangzhou 2025 and other related literature, this paper evaluates the advanced nature of equipment manufacturing industry zone on the west coast of pearl river, from four aspects of the ability in economic creation, scientific and technological innovation, environmental protection and social coordination etc. and select the 2015 statistical yearbook data to conduct empirical research on the west coast of the pearl river and the selected city. Combined with the investigation research development of intelligent manufacturing enterprises of the pearl river west coast, this article put forward countermeasures and policy suggestions on the development of equipment manufacturing industry.

    . An Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting Innovational Performance of the New R&D Institutions in China[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 48-53., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080467.

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  • The Advanced Status, Problems and Policy Suggestions of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in the West Coast of the Pearl River
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 54-58. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080692
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    This paper measures agglomeration level of hightech manufacturing industry and its five subsectors by standard deviational ellipse and analyzes the characteristics of their spatiotemporal evolution by visual technology of the space data of the GIS in China in 2004-2014.The results show that, on the hightech manufacturing industry, characteristics of spatial agglomeration is obvious, agglomeration center move from the coastal areas into central China, agglomeration size expand, agglomeration level decline but is always higher than that of the whole manufacturing industry; on the subsectors of hightech manufacturing industry, the space distribution of the spacecraft and equipment manufacturing industry is mainly determined by the nonmarket factors, the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry concentrates in the coastal areas of China, agglomeration level of the pharmaceutical manufacturing and medical instrument and equipment manufacturing industry improve significantly, while agglomeration level of computer and office equipment manufacturing industry decrease evidently. In order to further promote the sustained and healthy development of hightech manufacturing industry in China, the guide for industrial transfer and acquisition of hightech manufacturing industry should be strengthened and the development of hightech manufacturing industry in central China should be strongly supported.

    . The Advanced Status, Problems and Policy Suggestions of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in the West Coast of the Pearl River[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 54-58., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080692.

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  • The SpatioTemporal Evolution Features of HighTech Manufacturing Industry's Agglomeration Level in China
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 59-65. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080045
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    Patent cooperation is an inevitable choice of integrating innovation resources and promoting industrial innovation ability. Based on dynamic network analysis method, this paper makes research on the characteristics and evolution state of patent cooperation network by taking the Chinese graphene industry for an example. The results show that graphene industry is a great potential emerging industrial field, the whole network shows a fragmentation trend, which indicates there are disequilibrium of the level of regional cooperation innovation, the distribution of technology cooperation capability and the distribution of innovation resources. At last, some tactics are proposed according to the results. This study aims at providing method support and decision reference for governments' industry policy making and science and technology planning.

    . The SpatioTemporal Evolution Features of HighTech Manufacturing Industry's Agglomeration Level in China[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 59-65., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080045.

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  • Research on Patents Cooperation Network State based on Dynamic Network Method:Case of Graphene Industry in China
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 66-73. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017070386
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    The relationship between R&D input and enterprise performance has been one of the focuses of academic circles.On the basis of literature review and theoretical analysis,there is an empirical study on the relationship between R&D input and the performance of micro,small and mediumsized science and technology enterprises,and the moderating effect of enterprise R&D management on the relationship between R&D input and enterprise performance,while 3,214 micro,small and mediumsized science and technology enterprises in Guangdong province were selected as research samples.The results show that R&D input has a significant positive effect on enterprise performance,meanwhile the R&D management system has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between R&D input and its performance.R&D management institution has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between R&D expenditure intensity,total R&D personnel input,R&D personnel intensity and enterprise performance,but it has no significant moderating effect on the relationship between total R&D personnel expenditure input and enterprise performance.Finally,corresponding measures and suggestions were put forward from two aspects of the enterprise and the government.

    . Research on Patents Cooperation Network State based on Dynamic Network Method:Case of Graphene Industry in China[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 66-73., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017070386.

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  • Moderating Effect of Enterprise R&D Management on the Relation between R&D Input and Enterprise Performance
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 74-83. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060313
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    External resources and knowledge largely contribute to technology innovation of industrial firms. The external innovation linkage system of firms is shaped through two main mechanisms. On the one hand, the innovation network is a basic system arrangement to cope with firms systematic innovation crossing regions and sectors. The industrial firms may acquire diversified and high qualified external resources and knowledge to improve the ability of firms and promote innovation through this arrangement. Secondly, the cluster innovation mechanism of firms provides a common source of knowledge and provides for informal interaction and knowledge flow among firms. The cooperation for innovation and the complement for resources between firms in a regional cluster become an important external mechanism of innovation for each firm. Although cluster mechanism and network mechanism respectively acquire external resources and knowledge for innovation, the nature and flow of resources and knowledge acquired by firms are different between both the mechanisms, resulting in different impacts of each mechanism on the firms' innovation. Along with the time evolves, limitations of each innovation mode of action is gradually revealed. Based on the analysis of the role of cluster and network mechanism play in impacting technology innovation of firms, the paper explores how external factors in each mechanism hindering or promoting innovation of firms, giving the reasons for this. Then it suggests the complementary effects of two kinds of innovation mechanisms, explaining how to make use of both mechanisms to benefit technology innovation of firms through complementary effects between them. It also introduces the cluster and network dynamic variables, which may be used to measure the influence of cluster evolution and network evolution on firms' innovation process.

    . Moderating Effect of Enterprise R&D Management on the Relation between R&D Input and Enterprise Performance[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 74-83., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060313.

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  • The Analysis of Influence Mechanism of Enterprise Technology Innovation:a Complementary Approach based on Network and Cluster Mechanism
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 84-90. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060109
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    Studies on the risks and conflicts between participators and their governance stay on the static level, mainly focus on causes of the risks and preventive measures, have not go deep into risks in the evolutionary process of innovation ecosystem and their governance, which is more important for the development of innovation ecosystem. This article constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the evolution path of the innovation ecosystem whose contractual rules turn to relational under the governance of leading enterprise, and dose an empirical study based on the example of BYD new energy vehicle innovation ecosystem. It is a continuous process that the contractual rules evolves to be relational under the governance of leading enterprise. On the path of innovation ecosystem evolution under leading enterprise′s governance, there are three stages: synergetic innovation driving by contractual rules; innovation net formed during the rules′ changing from contractual to relational; open innovation driven by relational rules. The process′ main form is that the leading enterprise constructs the interaction and coordination of the innovation ecosystem by designs which are able to make the innovation system standardization. Key points of governance changing from contractual between enterprises to that the governance is dominated by the leading enterprise. Contractual governance will change to interaction and cooperative governance based on designing net and dominated by leading enterprise.

    . The Analysis of Influence Mechanism of Enterprise Technology Innovation:a Complementary Approach based on Network and Cluster Mechanism[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 84-90., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060109.

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  • Research on the Evolution Path of the Innovation Ecosystem based on the Leading Enterprise Governance
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 91-99. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017110653
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    Taking 171 social startups as the research object,the paper explores the relationship among entrepreneurial orientation,resource bricolage,regulation and the performance of newly created social enterprises.The results show that entrepreneurial orientation has a significantly positive impact on resource bricolage.Resource bricolage positively influence social and economic performance of social startups.Resource bricolage plays an mediating role not only between entrepreneurial orientation and economic performance,but entrepreneurial orientation and social performance.Regulation negatively moderates the relationship between resource bricolage and economic performance of social startups.Moreover,regulation moderates the mediating role of resource bricolage in the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and economic performance of social enterprises.

    . Research on the Evolution Path of the Innovation Ecosystem based on the Leading Enterprise Governance[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 91-99., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017110653.

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  • The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation on New Social Enterprises Performance〖HJ*2〗〖HJ〗
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 100-107. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017120566
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    Since the GDP per capita exceeded $7000 in 2013, has officially entered the ranks of highincome countries, the government has put forward Chinese innovation driven development, the "double development" strategic objectives, local governments at all levels is more intensive introduction of financial subsidies, tax incentives, such as the introduction of talent to create new public policy, these marked the implementation of China's public the economic policy from industrial policy to gradually transition to the stage of policy innovation.However, through the comparison of East Asia after World War II Japan, South Korea and China's Taiwan region system policy evolution history research, innovation system and policy of double drive system, play a role in encouraging the foundation, is the leading; policy can only play the role of induction is complementary.The difference between the objectives, tools and processes of the government's implementation of industrial and innovative policies determines that the reform of the basic system must be carried out first.

    . The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation on New Social Enterprises Performance〖HJ*2〗〖HJ〗[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 100-107., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017120566.

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  • Institutional Basis from Industrial Policy to Innovation Policy
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 108-112. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080615
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    With the development of society more and more technical and scientific, how to realize the value of science and technology, give full play to the positive value of technological process, while maximum to avoid the risk, that has become a major challenge faced by modern society. In this paper, analyzes the multi dimension times challenges faced by technological risk decision: post normal science brings nature challenges; risk society brings psychological conflict; social media makes risk communication alienation; knowledge society sensitive brings multi stakeholder game, so the paper put forward should from the macro, meso and micro corresponding system response, to establish and improve the democratic consultation system, try to put the public risk perception into the scientific decision, strengthen and standardize the risk communication function of the media.

    . Institutional Basis from Industrial Policy to Innovation Policy[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 108-112., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080615.

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  • The Challenge Facing by Technological Risk Decision and Its System Response
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 113-122. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017070167
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    Civilmilitary integration is a complex systematic project. The indexes of the evaluation on civilmilitary integration are interdependent and interact with each other. The indexing system for evaluation on development of China's civilmilitary integration covering the basis, strategy and environment is built in this paper. Meanwhile, considering the correlation between evaluation indexes, DEMATELANP model is used to assign the indexes weights. And on this basis, the grey relational analysis method is used to make empirical evaluation on development of civilmilitary integration in China. The result shows that material conditions are the basis to promote the development of China's civilmilitary integration. The key areas of China's civilmilitary integration should be the defenserelated science and technology, as well as the weapons and equipment. In addition, the focus of the civilmilitary integration in these two areas is enterprises, and the adaptability of enterprises' organization structure and staffing to civilmilitary integration is the key. Furthermore, the development of China's civilmilitary integration preliminary reaches the medium level as a whole, but there are significant differences between the development of different evaluation indexes.

    . The Challenge Facing by Technological Risk Decision and Its System Response[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 113-122., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017070167.

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  • Evaluation on Development of China's CivilMilitary Integration Considering Relevance of Evaluation Index: Research based on DEMATELANP and Grey Relational Analysis
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 123-130. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017070510
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    Based on the theory of network's embeddedness, by using of factor analysis method and statistical regression method, we sort out the forms of the negative effects of civilmilitary integration technological innovation network, and examine the impact of network's embeddedness on the negative effects of civilmilitary integration technological innovation network. The results show: the negative effects of civilmilitary integration technological innovation network consist of locking effect, path dependence effect and cognitive convergence effect; there is a ushaped relationship between the network embeddedness and the negative effects; the appropriate degrees of relational embeddedness and structural embeddedness are identified in civilmilitary integration technological innovation network.

    . Evaluation on Development of China's CivilMilitary Integration Considering Relevance of Evaluation Index: Research based on DEMATELANP and Grey Relational Analysis[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 123-130., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017070510.

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  • Research on the Negative Effects of CivilMilitary Integration Technological Innovation Network from the Perspective of Embeddedness
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 131-137. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2018010607
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    Bootleg innovation as a relatively covert behavior but affects organizational innovation performance is arousing the attention of certain experts and scholars ,in the advocating time of “mass innovation”.In view of this,to explore the mechanism of employee bootleg innovation will help us understand and guide this behavior better.According to 331 valid questionnaires by employees,conclusions of this study are as follows: differential leadership has a positive effect on bootleg innovation;there is a mediation effect of psychological entitlement in the action mechanism of differential leadership and bootleg innovation;cognitive conflict positively moderated the relationship between psychological entitlement and bootleg innovation, and also bootleg innovation the whole mediating mechanism.

    . Research on the Negative Effects of CivilMilitary Integration Technological Innovation Network from the Perspective of Embeddedness[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 131-137., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2018010607.

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  • The Influence of Differential Leadership to Bootleg Innovation:a Moderated Mediation Model
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 138-144. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060034
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    Based on the theory of social exchange and social cognition, 426employees were used to analyze the influence of ethical leadership on entrepreneurial intention and the mediating role of entrepreneurial selfefficacy and the moderating role of organizational entrepreneurial climate in this mechanism. The research shows that ethical leadership has a positive effect on entrepreneurial intention, and entrepreneurial selfefficacy plays a mediating role between ethical leadership and entrepreneurial intention, the intermediary role of entrepreneurial selfefficacy is regulated by the organizational entrepreneurial climate. Finally, put forward some suggestions to the company.

    . The Influence of Differential Leadership to Bootleg Innovation:a Moderated Mediation Model[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 138-144., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060034.

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  • A Study on the Influence Mechanism of Ethical Leadership on Employee's Entrepreneurial Intention
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 145-151. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060713
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    Based on the theoretical perspective of the dynamic entrepreneurial failure, this paper applied a research method, a multicase code analysis, to discuss connotations and characteristics of learning contents of university students' entrepreneurial failure, among eight university students with entrepreneurial failure experience and 4 entrepreneurial instructors. Significant results are found that university students' leaning contents from their entrepreneurial failure consists of four dimensions: oneself, venture, networks and relationships, venture management. The failure of learning contents is featured with difference; the networks and relationships are more prominent, the venture management, is weak. Meanwhile, the failure of learning contents is featured with dynamic, and the four dimensions present different characteristics in the three stages of failure learning. The research will help establish the theoretical relation between the process of entrepreneurial failure and learning contents. Some suggestions have been drawn that the assistance mechanism of university students' entrepreneurial failure can be built to encourage them to learn from their failure, based on the coexist of difference and dynamic characteristics.

    . A Study on the Influence Mechanism of Ethical Leadership on Employee's Entrepreneurial Intention[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 145-151., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017060713.

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  • Difference and Dynamic Coexist:a Multicase Analysis of the Learning Contents of University Students' Entrepreneurial Failure
    SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY. 2018, 35(9): 152-160. https://doi.org/10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080322
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    In order to grasp the progress of subversion technology identification prediction method, Firstly, the connotation, characteristics and operation mechanism of disruptive technologies are discussed.The existing methods of identification and prediction are divided into five categories, and the detailed analysis is carried out respectively.Finally, the methods are compared and analyzed.The study found that the methods of identification and forecating are still in the early stage of development, all the methods are around external or internal characteristics of the disruptive technologies, but not the organic combination of the two stand up.In the future, researchers should grasp the internal and external characteristics of disruptive technologies and construct a comprehensive system of identification and forecasting framework and indicators.

    . Difference and Dynamic Coexist:a Multicase Analysis of the Learning Contents of University Students' Entrepreneurial Failure[J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2018, 35(9): 152-160., doi: 10.6049/kjjbydc.2017080322.

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