|
|
Large Group Emergency Decision Method of Major Emergencies for Engineering Construction Based on Right Distribution Risk Measure |
Xu Xuanhua,Luo Xintong,Chen Xiaohong,Sun Hanhan,Yang Yushan |
School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China |
|
|
Abstract Aiming at the risk caused by the distribution of rights of decision-making participants of large engineering project, a large group risk emergency decision-making method is proposed. Firstly, a measure model for measuring the risk of large group decision-making is proposed by using information entropy theory. Secondly, the risk, which is derived from the distribution of rights when participating in the decision-making process, is quantitatively calculated. Then, the risk preference is used to determine the final preference information assembly. As a result, the emergency schemes are sorted accordingly. Finally, a case of warehouse explosion incident in construction project illustrates the effectiveness of the method.
|
Received: 01 April 2017
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
Xu Xuanhua
|
|
|
|
[1]生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例[Z].中华人民共和国国务院令第493号,2007.
[2]DANIEL KAHNEMAN,AMOS TVERSKY.Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[3]BELL D E.Regret in decision making under uncertainty[J].Operations Research,1982,30(5):961-981.
[4]周斌.政府投资项目决策参与者决策风险管理研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.
[5]徐选华,王敏赛,陈晓红.偏好冲突优化的多属性多阶段大群体决策方法[J].系统工程学报,2014,29(1):48-55.
[6]陈占锋.加强和完善行政决策风险评估机制建设[J].行政管理改革,2012(9):70-74.
[7]FASOLO B,COSTA C A B E.Tailoring value elicitation to decision makers' numeracy and fluency:expressing value judgments in numbers or words[J].Omega,2014,44:83-90.
[8]“7·23”甬温线特别重大铁路交通事故调查报告[EB/OL].http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/newpage/Contents/Channel_21679/2011/1228/244874/content_244874.htm.2011-10-11.
[9]天津港“8·12”瑞海公司危险品仓库特别重大火灾爆炸事故调查报告[EB/OL].http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/newpage/newfiles/201600812baogao.pdf.2016-10-11.
[10]AVEN T.Risk assessment and risk management:review of recent advances on their foundation[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,253(1):1-13.
[11]张昕蕾.风险度量中的信息熵方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[12]肖文涛,范达超.网络舆情事件的引导策略探究[J].中国行政管理,2011(12):24-28.
[13]徐选华,陈晓红,王红伟.一种面向效用值偏好信息的大群体决策方法[J].控制与决策,2009,24(3):440-445.
[14]YAGER R R,ALAJLAN N.Some issues on the OWA aggregation with importance weighted arguments[J].Knowledge-Based Systems,2016,100(C):89-96.
[15]刘俊山.基于风险测度理论的证券投资组合优化研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2007.
[16]郑承利,陈燕.基于等熵一致性风险测度的组合选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014(3):648-655.
[17]PENDER J,SLOWINSKI R,ARTALEJO J,et al.Risk measures and their application to staffing non-stationary service systems[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2016,254(1):113-126.
[18]YE W,LUO K,LIU X.Time-varying quantile association regression model with applications to financial contagion and VaR[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2017,256(3):1015-1028.
[19]FLEISCHHACKER A J,FOK P W.On the relationship between entropy,demand uncertainty,and expected loss[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,245(2):623-628.
[20]GRECHUK B,ZABARANKIN M.Inverse portfolio problem with coherent risk measures[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,249(2):740-750.
[21]LIU B,SHEN Y,CHEN X,et al.A complex multi-attribute large-group PLS decision-making method in the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2014,38(17-18):4512-4527.
|
[1] |
. [J]. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2013, 30(23): 10-12. |
|
|
|
|