绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响效应——非线性中介效应与调节效应分析

doi:10.6049/kjjbydc.H202307149

科技进步与对策

2024, Vol. 41

Issue (8): 22-32 DOI: 10.6049/kjjbydc.H202307149

科技管理创新

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绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响效应——非线性中介效应与调节效应分析

徐俊武^1,2,陈钊雄¹

（1.湖北大学商学院；2.湖北省开放经济研究中心，湖北武汉 430062）

The Effect of Green Technology Innovation on Carbon Emission:An Analysis Based on Nonlinear Mediating Effects and Moderating Effects

Xu Junwu^1,2,Chen Zhaoxiong¹

(1.School of Business, Hubei University;2.Research Center of Open Economy, Wuhan 430062, China)

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摘要绿色技术创新是解决环境污染和实现碳减排目标的重要手段。基于2011—2021年中国内地271个地级及以上城市面板数据，使用参数与非参数方法检验绿色技术创新对碳排放的非线性影响，分析能源消费结构及产业结构的中介作用，同时探讨环境规制、科创支持、市场化程度和公众关注的调节作用。研究发现：①基准回归结果表明，绿色技术创新与碳排放呈显著倒“U”型关系；②异质性检验结果表明，倒“U”型关系仅在非资源型城市、低碳试点城市和高质量绿色技术创新体现明显；③中介效应检验结果表明，绿色技术创新既能通过优化能源消费结构降低碳排放，又会通过阻碍产业结构升级增加碳排放；④调节效应分析结果表明，公众关注、科创支持和市场化程度对绿色技术创新与碳排放倒“U”型关系起正向调节作用，使倒“U”型曲线更陡峭，而环境规制对绿色技术创新与碳排放倒“U”型关系起负向调节作用，使倒“U”型曲线更平缓。据此，提出提升绿色技术创新能力、推动清洁能源发展、加强政策配套支持、完善市场机制、构建政府公众共治体系等建议。

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	徐俊武
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关键词 ：绿色技术创新, 碳排放, 非线性效应, 调节效应, 中介效应

收稿日期: 2023-07-27 修回日期: 2023-12-04

ZTFLH:

F204

基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJL004)

作者简介: 徐俊武（1978—），男，湖北武汉人，博士，湖北大学商学院副教授，湖北省开放经济研究中心研究员，研究方向为人口、资源与环境经济学；陈钊雄（1998—），男，广东广州人，湖北大学商学院硕士研究生，研究方向为环境经济学。

引用本文:

徐俊武,陈钊雄. 绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响效应——非线性中介效应与调节效应分析[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2024, 41(8): 22-32.
Xu Junwu,Chen Zhaoxiong. The Effect of Green Technology Innovation on Carbon Emission:An Analysis Based on Nonlinear Mediating Effects and Moderating Effects. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY, 2024, 41(8): 22-32.

链接本文:

http://www.kjjb.org/CN/10.6049/kjjbydc.H202307149 或 http://www.kjjb.org/CN/Y2024/V41/I8/22

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