揭示中国新质生产力发展情况差异与演进规律，对优化重大生产力布局，推动区域协调发展具有重大意义。基于DPSIR模型构建涵盖驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5个维度的新质生产力水平评价指标体系，利用熵值法对2013—2022年中国内地30个省份新质生产力水平进行测度，借助Dagum基尼系数、方差分解方法从空间与结构双维视角剖析新质生产力水平差异来源，并运用二次指派程序揭示新质生产力水平差异形成机理。结果发现：中国新质生产力水平呈现稳步上升趋势，在空间上呈现“东高西低、南高北低”的梯度分布格局；空间差异有所下降但长期处于高位运行，区域间差异、区域内差异分别是东西向和南北向差异的主要空间来源；驱动力系统差异、影响系统差异和响应系统差异是中国新质生产力水平差异的主要结构来源；响应、影响、驱动力、压力、状态等子系统差异对中国新质生产力水平差异的正向影响依次减弱。研究结论可为新质生产力水平评价、促进新质生产力水平提升提供参考启示。

The emancipation and development of productive forces constitute the fundamental task of socialism and represent the core issue of China's revolution, construction, and reform. New quality productive forces, distinguished from traditional ones, arise as the vanguard in contemporary times, shaped by technological revolutions, innovative production factor allocation, and significant industrial transformation and upgrading. These forces are considered a major component of productive forces. However, an enduring emphasis on an efficiency-centric model of productivity has led to increased spatial disparities within the industrial and economic frameworks. This is evident in the persistent concentration of strategic emerging industries and major infrastructure in the southeastern coastal region, resulting in an escalating issue of differentiation in new quality productivity between and within regions. As the development of new quality productivity emerges as an intrinsic requirement and a pivotal focus for promoting high-quality development, it is imperative to discern the trend of change in its level and disparities within China. What are the underlying sources of these disparities? Moreover, what mechanisms drive the formation of differences between and within regions? Answers to these inquiries will reveal the actual state of China's new productivity development and the dynamics of disparities, providing empirical insights to guide policy-making for the balanced allocation of productive forces and the promotion of integrated regional growth.
However, the lack of consensus on the definition of new quality productivity in academia impedes the development of a theoretical framework for its accurate measurement. Current evaluation systems are static, ignoring the dynamic causality and evolution of these forces. While existing empirical studies have addressed regional differentiation, they tend to focus on spatial differences and sources from a geographical standpoint, neglecting structural differences in economic terms. A significant concern is the insufficient in-depth analysis of the mechanisms that drive the disparities in the levels of new quality productive forces, especially amidst the ongoing inter- and intra-regional differences.
This paper develops an evaluation system for the levels of new-quality productive forces based on the DPSIR model, covering five dimensions: driving force, pressure, state, impact, and response. It assesses the levels of new quality productive forces in 30 provinces and cities in China from 2013 to 2022 using the entropy method. The analysis identifies the sources of differences in these levels from both the spatial and structural perspectives, utilizing Dagum's Gini coefficient and variance decomposition methods. Furthermore, the study uncovers the mechanisms behind these differences through the quadratic assignment procedure. The results indicate that China's new quality productive forces have consistently increased, showing a spatial gradient distribution of 'high in the east, low in the west, high in the south, and low in the north'. Regional differentiation and disparities among provinces and municipalities have emerged as key features of China's uneven development in new quality productive forces. Although spatial disparities have declined, they remain at elevated levels over time. Inter-regional and intra-regional differences drive east-west and north-south disparities, respectively, and the overall spatial pattern remains predominantly characterized by east-west differences. Structurally, disparities in the driving force, impact, and response systems account for over 75% of the total variance in productivity levels. Among the subsystems—response, impact, driving force, pressure, and state—their influence on overall disparities decreases in that order. Additionally, any increase in subsystem disparities contributes to the widening of productivity gaps.
Compared to the existing literature, this paper makes several key contributions. First, it develops an evaluation system for the levels of new quality productive forces based on the DPSIR model from the five dimensions of driving force, pressure, state, impact, and response. Second, the study takes a dual spatial perspective—'East-Middle-West' and 'North-South'—and employs both spatial and structural analyses using Dagum's Gini coefficient and variance decomposition to uncover the sources and evolutionary characteristics of differences in new quality productive forces. This approach advances the methodology for decomposing disparities in the levels of productive forces. Third, utilizing a relational data analysis paradigm, the study applies the quadratic assignment procedure to empirically investigate the mechanisms driving differences in the levels of new quality productive forces, offering insights to support coordinated improvements in productivity across regions.