|
|
|
| Does the Development of New Technology Hinder the Innovation of Traditional Technology：An Empirical Analysis of the Automobile Industry |
| Liu Xiaoling |
| (School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116024, China) |
|
|
|
Abstract In the new round of technological and industrial revolution, the rapid development of emerging technologies has brought a non-negligible impact on traditional industries and forces incumbent enterprises to timely adjust their operation strategies. In the competition between traditional and new technologies, does the progress of emerging technologies encourage traditional manufacturers to increase the investment in innovation activities? Or does it stimulate the incumbents to switch technical routes and accelerate the decline of traditional industries? There is no consensus regarding whether the innovation substitution effects or innovation complementary effects play the dominant role. An in-depth investigation of the impact of new technology on traditional technology is beneficial, for it could help the central government to optimize the industrial layout from an overall perspective.
This study chooses China's automobile industry as the research object and focuses on the relation between the innovation activities of traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles enterprises. Compared with the existing literature, the study has the contribution in three aspects. First, this study distinguishes the impacts of new technologies on conventional technologies at different stages of industrial life cycle rather than make a general analysis. Second, it further divides technological innovation into product innovation and process innovation. Product innovation improves the level of product differentiation, and process innovation helps to decrease product costs. Third, this study uses an econometric approach to empirically examine the relation between traditional and new technologies, and it is different from previous studies adopting the method of case studies.
The paper is organized as follows. It first compares the development paths of traditional fuel vehicle and electric vehicle technologies, and puts forward a three-stage model of automobile industry evolution based on the theory of industrial life cycle. Then, hypotheses on the relationship between R&D activities of different automobile manufacturers at different development stages are proposed. Based on the panel data of Chinese provincial patents from 1995 to 2021, the study uses the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) method to empirically examine the effects of technological progress of electric vehicles on that of traditional fuel vehicles at various stages from two dimensions product innovation and process innovation.
The results show that during the period of new technological paradigm introduction (1995-2008), the product innovation and process innovation of electric vehicles have positive effects on the progress of product innovation and process innovation of traditional vehicles respectively. During the period of technological paradigm construction (2009-2021), the process innovation of electric vehicles exerts a significant positive impact on that of traditional vehicles, whereas the production innovation of electric vehicles has no significant influence on that of traditional vehicles. The heterogeneity analysis of different regions shows that in provinces where the development of emerging industries lags behind, the promoting effect of new technologies on traditional technologies will be weakened to a certain extent.
The conclusions of this study demonstrate an innovation complementary effect between the traditional and new technologies and point to several important implications for policymakers in fostering the development of automobile industry. First, the government should gradually reduce the support for electric vehicles and maintain the neutrality of the choice of technological route. Second, strategic cooperation and resource sharing among different kinds of automobile enterprises are encouraged, as traditional automobile enterprises have significant advantages in terms of vehicle integration technology while electric vehicle manufacturers perform better in lightweight and intelligent applications. Third, in consideration of the great pressure to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals for China's automobile industry, it is suggested to integrate the automobile enterprises’ subsidy standards with the product performance in carbon emission reduction, integrate the requirements of relevant product carbon emission information in the selection and acceptance of R & D projects, and improve the fuel combustion efficiency and the application proportion of electric vehicles.
|
|
Received: 21 February 2022
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1]肖利平，谢丹阳. 国外技术引进与本土创新增长: 互补还是替代——基于异质吸收能力的视角[J].中国工业经济，2016,33 (9): 75-92.
[2]NAGY D, SCHUESSLER J, DUBINSKY A. Defining and identifying disruptive innovations[J].Industrial Marketing Management, 2016, 57(8):119-126.
[3]邢文凤. 比较企业优势观视角下后发企业追赶路径研究——以新能源汽车发展引发的范式转换为背景[J].科学学研究，2017，35(1): 101-109.
[4]UTTERBACK J M, ACEE H J. Disruptive technologies: an expanded view[J].International Journal of Innovation Management, 2005, 9(1):1-17.
[5]ANDREWS J G, BUZZI S, CHOI W, et al. What will 5G be[J].IEEE Journal on Selected Areas in Communications, 2014, 32(6):1065-1082.
[6]FIZZA M, SHAH M A. 5G technology: an overview of applications, prospects, challenges and beyond[J].Department of Computer Science, COMSATS Institute of Information technology, 2016: 94-102.
[7]SCHIAVONE F. Innovation approaches for old products revitalisation after technological change: the rise of technology reverse[J].International Journal of Innovation Management, 2014, 18(2): 1450011.
[8]柳卸林，高雨辰，丁雪辰.寻找创新驱动发展的新理论思维——基于新熊彼特增长理论的思考[J].管理世界，2017,33(12): 8-19.
[9]BARTHOLEYNS G. The instant past: Nostalgia and digital retro photography[M]//Media and nostalgia. London:Palgrave Macmillan, 2014: 51-69.
[10]WEAVER P, JANSEN L, VAN GROOTVELD G, et al. Sustainable technology development[M].London:Routledge, 2017.
[11]杨震宁，李东红，李德辉.中国制造业的产业追赶机制:跨案例研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理，2014，35(10): 51-63.
[12]GUO J, NIKOU S, BOUWMAN H. Business model for mobile payment in China[J].International Journal of Systems and Service-Oriented Engineering, 2015, 5(2): 20-43.
[13]SCHIEFFER R, CHEN M. Iridium global satellite phone system: lost in space[J].Kellogg School of Management Cases, 2017: 1-16.
[14]UTTERBACK J M, ABERNATHY W J. A dynamic model of process and product innovation[J].Omega, 1975, 3(6):639-656.
[15]李健旋，杨浩昌. 制造业产品和工艺创新协同及其区域比较研究[J].科研管理，2018，39(4): 43-54.
[16]KIM L. Building technological capability for industrialization: analytical frameworks and Korea’s experience[J].Industrial and Corporate Change, 1999, 8(1): 111-136.
[17]张慧颖，王丽苹，张颖春，等. 改进A-U模型视角下我国战略性新兴产业的发展路径研究——以机器人产业为例[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版)，2016，18(1): 6-10.
[18]李柏洲，马永红，刘化飞. 基于AU模型的我国汽车产业基地自主创新策略研究[J].现代管理科学，2009,28(6): 68-70.
[19]张宗庆，郑江淮. 技术无限供给条件下企业创新行为——基于中国工业企业创新调查的实证分析[J].管理世界，2013，29(1):115-132.
[20]王宏起，汪英华，武建龙，等.新能源汽车创新生态系统演进机理——基于比亚迪新能源汽车的案例研究[J].中国软科学，2016,31(4): 81-94.
[21]孙晓华，王林. 范式转换、新兴产业演化与市场生态位培育——以新能源汽车为例[J].经济学家，2014,26(5): 54-62.
[22]HARGRAVE T J, VAN DE VEN A H. Integrating dialectical and paradox perspectives on managing contradictions in organizations[J].Organization Studies, 2017, 38(3-4): 319-339.
[23]李玉花，简泽. 从渐进式创新到颠覆式创新:一个技术突破的机制[J].中国工业经济，2021,38(9): 5-24.
[24]冯磊东，顾孟迪. 纵向差异下工艺创新对产品创新的影响[J].管理工程学报，2018，32(3): 73-81.
[25]李金生，宋丹丹. 技术范式演进下企业动态创新能力模型研究[J].科技进步与对策，2016，33(11):73-79.
[26]FOSTER R, KAPLAN S. Creative destruction：why companies that are built to last underperform the market, and how to successfully transform them [M].New York: Doubleday, 2001.
|
|
|
|
