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| Research on Forecasting and Influencing Factors of Innovation Capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei |
| Li Jian，Lu Yazhou |
| (Research Center of Circular Economy and Enterprise Sustainable Development，School of Management，Tianjin University of Technology，Tianjin 300384, China) |
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Abstract This paper starts with analysis of the innovation capability system structure of BeijingTianjinHebei. The environmental regulation intensity and industrial structure are integrated into the innovation system. By using the method of system dynamics and patent authorization quantity as the object of representation, the simulation model of scientific and technological innovation capability system is established to explore the technological innovation strength of BeijingTianjinHebei in 2025. From the perspective of innovation policy environment and innovation resource input, the scenario analysis method is used to simulate the changes of output variables under different input factors and combinations of factors. According to the results of simulation and formation mechanism analysis of BeijingTianjinHebei innovation capability, the scientific basis for the strategic planning is putted forward to enhance the BeijingTianjinHebei technological innovation capability.
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Received: 19 February 2019
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