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Abstract In order to grasp the progress of subversion technology identification prediction method, Firstly, the connotation, characteristics and operation mechanism of disruptive technologies are discussed.The existing methods of identification and prediction are divided into five categories, and the detailed analysis is carried out respectively.Finally, the methods are compared and analyzed.The study found that the methods of identification and forecating are still in the early stage of development, all the methods are around external or internal characteristics of the disruptive technologies, but not the organic combination of the two stand up.In the future, researchers should grasp the internal and external characteristics of disruptive technologies and construct a comprehensive system of identification and forecasting framework and indicators.
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| Fund:国家自然科学基金项目（71704170）；中国博士后科学基金项目（2016M590124）；中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（2016159） |
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