|
|
|
| The Effect of Green Technology Innovation on Carbon Emission:An Analysis Based on Nonlinear Mediating Effects and Moderating Effects |
| Xu Junwu1,2,Chen Zhaoxiong1 |
| (1.School of Business, Hubei University;2.Research Center of Open Economy, Wuhan 430062, China) |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Strengthening green technology innovation and promoting major scientific and technological applications are of great significance for achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of China.However, existing studies indicate that technological innovation may not consistently mitigate environmental pollution, and there is ongoing debate about the global efficacy of green technology innovation in reducing carbon emissions.The implementation of green technology may paradoxically heighten energy consumption, resulting in a carbon rebound effect that exceeds emission reductions achieved through technological progress.This could lead to a significant increase in carbon emissions, posing a substantial challenge.Theoretically, the moderating roles of the government, degree of marketization, and public attention are also pivotal in mitigating the impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions.Hence, this paper systematically organizes the comprehensive impacts and mechanisms of green technology innovation on carbon emissions.#br#Green technology innovation has a multifaceted impact on carbon emissions.On one hand, it enhances energy efficiency through technological upgrades, reducing consumption and lowering production costs for businesses with unchanged energy demand.According to Cost theory, this triggers increased product demand, prompting companies to raise input factors that lead to growth in energy demand, consumption, and carbon emissions—an effect known as the output effect.Additionally, improved energy efficiency may lower fossil energy prices, potentially increasing demand and weakening the expected impact of green technology.On the other hand, green technology innovation can reduce carbon emissions at different production stages.Clean energy sources like solar and wind power can replace fossil energy, while innovation in production processes improves energy utilization efficiency and production efficiency, indirectly reducing carbon emissions without changing total output.Thus, it contributes to effective carbon emission reduction by optimizing pollution control technologies, developing carbon sink technologies and carbon storage technologies.The government, market, and the public are crucial in this process.Green technology innovation involves substantial investment and slow returns, with a typical policy-driven role and greater external dependence compared to other technological innovations.Government policies can rectify market failures, restrain polluting enterprises, and guide technological and industrial development through incentives.As policies gradually recede, the market assumes a more pivotal role.In the competitive landscape, a "survival-of-the-fittest" mechanism compels enterprises to transform.Joint government and public oversight influence decisions, impacting adjustments in technology research and development direction and intensity.#br#Using the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper introduces novel approaches by employing both parametric and non-parametric models to assess the non-linear relationship between green technology innovation and carbon emissions.Moreover, it utilizes a mediating effect model to analyze the factors contributing to the formation of this non-linear relationship.Additionally, this study expands its scope of investigation to include governmental, market, and public factors.Specifically, it examines the role of the government, market, and the public in relation to their levels of public concern, the implementation of environmental regulations, support for science and technology innovation, and the degree of marketization.The benchmark regression analysis discloses a notable "inverted U"-relationship between green technology innovation and carbon emissions.This distinctive relationship is evident exclusively in non-resource cities, low-carbon pilot cities, and high-quality green technology innovation.The mediating effect analysis underscores that green technology innovation can alleviate carbon emissions by optimizing energy consumption structures.Conversely, it may contribute to increased carbon emissions by impeding industrial structure upgrading.Moreover, moderating effects suggest that increased public concern and support for science and innovation, and a greater degree of marketization positively influence the "inverted U"-relationship between green technological innovation and carbon emissions, rendering the curve steeper.In contrast, environmental regulation exhibits a negative moderating effect on this relationship, flattening the "inverted U"-curve.#br#The research provides empirical demonstrations to deepen the understanding of the connection between green technological innovation and carbon emissions.It contributes to the enhancement of both theoretical and empirical research in the realms of green technology innovation and carbon emission reduction, and offers insights for theoretical and empirical research on industrial green transformation and green innovation R&D, as well as supporting the formulation and implementation of green policies, such as government environmental supervision and innovation subsidies.#br#
|
|
Received: 27 July 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 王培鑫,吕长江.环境保护与经济发展能否和谐共进——来自创新的经验证据[J].南开管理评论,2023,26(1):67-83.
[2] CAI J, ZHENG H, VARDANYAN M, et al. Achieving carbon neutrality through green technological progress: evidence from China[J]. Energy Policy, 2023, 173: 113397.
[3] 贾锐宁,邵帅,杜克锐,等.中国碳回弹效应的时空格局、动态演进及驱动因素——基于改进的碳排放随机前沿模型的实证考察[J].中国软科学,2022,37(12):23-34.
[4] 邵帅, 范美婷, 杨莉莉. 经济结构调整、绿色技术进步与中国低碳转型发展——基于总体技术前沿和空间溢出效应视角的经验考察[J]. 管理世界, 2022, 38(2): 46-69,4-10.
[5] 张慧智,孙茹峰.政府环境注意力如何影响区域绿色技术创新——基于政府治理视角的研究[J].科技进步与对策,2023,40(7):12-22.
[6] XU L, FAN M, YANG L, et al. Heterogeneous green innovations and carbon emission performance: evidence at China′s city level[J]. Energy Economics, 2021,99:105269.
[7] WANG R, MIRZA N, VASBIEVA D G, et al. The nexus of carbon emissions, financial development, renewable energy consumption, and technological innovation: what should be the priorities in light of COP 21 Agreements[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2020,271:111027.
[8] DING Q, KHATTAK S I, AHMAD M. Towards sustainable production and consumption: assessing the impact of energy productivity and eco-innovation on consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) in G-7 nations[J]. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 2021, 27: 254-268.
[9] MEIRUN T, MIHARDJO L W, HASEEB M, et al. The dynamics effect of green technology innovation on economic growth and CO2 emission in Singapore: new evidence from bootstrap ARDL approach[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021, 28(4): 4184-4194.
[10] JIANG Q, RAHMAN Z U, ZHANG X, et al. An assessment of the effect of green innovation, income, and energy use on consumption-based CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from emerging nations BRICS[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 365: 132636.
[11] RAZZAQ A, WANG Y, CHUPRADIT S, et al. Asymmetric inter-linkages between green technology innovation and consumption-based carbon emissions in BRICS countries using quantile-on-quantile framework[J]. Technology in Society, 2021, 66: 101656.
[12] SHAN S, GENC S Y, KAMRAN H W, et al. Role of green technology innovation and renewable energy in carbon neutrality: a sustainable investigation from Turkey[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021, 294: 113004.
[13] 徐斌, 陈宇芳, 沈小波. 清洁能源发展、二氧化碳减排与区域经济增长[J]. 经济研究, 2019, 54(7): 188-202.
[14] 谢里,陈宇.节能技术创新有助于降低能源消费吗——“杰文斯悖论”的再检验[J].管理科学学报,2021,24(12):77-91.
[15] DAUDA L, LONG X, MENSAH C N, et al. Innovation, trade openness and CO2 emissions in selected countries in Africa[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021, 281: 125143.
[16] CHEN H, YI J, CHEN A, et al. Green technology innovation and CO2 emission in China: evidence from a spatial-temporal analysis and a nonlinear spatial durbin model[J]. Energy Policy, 2023, 172: 113338.
[17] DU K, LI P, YAN Z. Do green technology innovations contribute to carbon dioxide emission reduction? empirical evidence from patent data[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019, 146: 297-303.
[18] DU K, LI J. Towards a green world: how do green technology innovations affect total-factor carbon productivity[J]. Energy Policy, 2019, 131: 240-250.
[19] XIN D, AHMAD M, LEI H, et al. Do innovation in environmental-related technologies asymmetrically affect carbon dioxide emissions in the United States[J]. Technology in Society, 2021, 67: 101761.
[20] LIN B, MA R. Green technology innovations, urban innovation environment and CO2 emission reduction in China: fresh evidence from a partially linear functional-coefficient panel model[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2022, 176: 121434.
[21] 纪建悦,许瑶,张懿.民间投资视角下环境规制对绿色全要素生产率的影响研究[J].中国管理科学,2023,31(5):11-19.
[22] 郭捷,杨立成.环境规制、政府研发资助对绿色技术创新的影响——基于中国内地省级层面数据的实证分析[J].科技进步与对策,2020,37(10):37-44.
[23] YAO Y, LI X, SMYTH R, et al. Air pollution and political trust in local government: evidence from China[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2022, 115: 102724.
|
|
|
|
