|
|
|
| A Framework of Policy-technology Roadmap of Disruptive Technology: A Case of New Energy Vehicle Industry in China |
| Hu Wen,Xia Beili |
| (Institute of Information, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200235, China) |
|
|
|
|
Abstract In the process of low-carbon transitions, disruptive technologies can help the technology paradigm get rid of the "carbon lock-in" situation, promote the market structure to subvert the "carbon dependence" pattern, and accelerate the transition of the energy power system towards a greener direction. In the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the research on the response strategy of disruptive technology has gradually made breakthroughs from the enterprise level to the system level. On the one hand, it requires to reshape the relationship between the time dimension and public policy to deal with the high time sensitivity of disruptive technologies; on the other hand, response strategies are expected to develop at a higher level to deal with the social impact of disruptive technologies.#br#In order to provide a better explanation of the dynamic relationship between the development of emerging industries based on disruptive technologies and relevant policy impact, this paper constructs a policy-technology roadmap framework for the development of disruptive technologies and their emerging industries. By introducing the sustainable transition theory of socio-technical system, the framework of integrated policy-technology roadmap (P-TRM) proposed by Huang Cui is improved in two aspects. Firstly, the traditional technology roadmap consists of three levels (market-product-technology), and then the user demand layer and the participant layer are added to realize the embedding of social dimensions and multi-subject analysis. Secondly, the typology of policy instruments is adjusted into three types (shielding, nurturing, and empowerment) to realize the dynamic analysis and transition research in the process of disruptive innovation. Meanwhile, according to the conclusion of theoretical research, a preliminary analysis is made on impact dimensions of policy instruments and multi-level interaction mechanism in the early stage, growth stage and transition stage. #br#Within the analytical framework,empirical research is carried out by taking China's new energy vehicle industry as an example. To ensure the validity of the empirical research, this paper adopts the research method combining case studies and meta-analysis. It firstly employs case studies by collecting diverse sources of data and multi-heterogeneous data to descriptively analyze the development process of the industry, in preparation for the drawing of the technology roadmap. Then it makes the meta-analysis to summarize impact dimensions of China's new energy vehicle policy by extracting the research conclusions of 43 literatures on policy effects, and provides political implications. According to the research conclusions of case studies and meta-analysis, a policy-technology roadmap of China's new energy vehicle industry is drawn, and the usage frequency and impact dimensions of three types of policies,including shielding, nurturing, and empowerment at each stage are analyzed. The conclusions of the empirical research validate the explanatory potential of the disruptive technology policy-technology roadmap proposed in this paper. Further, according to the conclusions of the empirical research, impact dimensions of policy instruments are revised. Firstly, shielding instruments have a positive effect on the formation of emerging markets in the early stage. Secondly, empowerment instruments have a certain impact on the product level in the transition stage.#br#In summary, the results show that the policy-technology roadmap framework explains the interactive evolution law of policy instruments, disruptive technologies and emerging industries in different stages from the perspective of socio-technical system transition. In the early stage, shielding instruments are employed to support the formation of knowledge space. In the growth stage, nurturing instruments are employed to establish good niche functions. In the transition stage, empowerment instruments are employed to promote the smooth transformation from old paradigms to new paradigms through fit-and-conform and stretch-and-transform paths. The results provide some management enlightenments for solving the problem of agile response of disruptive technology policies in low-carbon transitions. (1) Early intervention should mainly focus on shielding instruments, with the aim to provide space for niche diversification and promote the formation of emerging markets. (2) The timing of intervention will affect the policy effect significantly. (3) In the growth and transition stages, it is critical to pay attention to the interaction between nurturing and empowerment instruments. The effects of policy instruments on multiple participants and their spillover effects on other instruments should be considered comprehensively, and dynamic adjustments should be made according to the policy feedback loops.#br#
|
|
Received: 30 September 2022
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] BOWER J L,CHRISTENSEN C M.Disruptive technologies:catching the wave[J].Harvard Business Review,1995(1):43-53.
[2] PALMIE M,WINCENT J,PARIDA V,CAGLAR U.The evolution of the financial technology ecosystem:an introduction and agenda for future research on disruptive innovations in ecosystems[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2020,151:119779.
[3] WALRAVE B,TALMAR M,PODOYNITSYNA K S,et al.A multi-level perspective on innovation ecosystems for path-breaking innovation[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2018,136:103-113.
[4] REJENSKI D.Making policy in a Moore's Law World[J].Ubiquity,2003(12):1.
[5] KOSTOFF R N,BOYLAN R,SIMONS G R.Disruptive technology roadmaps[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2004,71:141-159.
[6] YOON B,PHAAL R,PROBERT D.Morphology analysis for technology roadmapping:application of text mining[J].R&D Management,2008,38:51-68.
[7] 黄萃,徐磊,钟笑天,等.基于政策工具的政策-技术路线图(P-TRM)框架构建与实证分析——以中国风机制造业和光伏产业为例[J].中国软科学,2014,29(5):76-84.
[8] RAVEN R,KERN F,VERHEES B,et al.Niche construction and empowerment through socio-political work:a meta-analysis of six low-carbon technology cases[J].Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions,2016,18:164-180.
[9] GEELS F W.From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems:insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory[J].Research Policy,2004,33:897-920.
[10] GENUS A,COLES A M.Rethinking the multi-level perspective of technological transitions[J].Research Policy,2008,37(8):1436-1445.
[11] GEDDES A,SCHMIDT T S.Integrating finance into the multi-level perspective:technology niche-finance regime interactions and financial policy interventions[J].Research Policy,2020,49:103985.
[12] NYKVIST B,NILLSSON M.The EV paradox-a multilevel study of why stockholm is not a leader in electric vehicles[J].Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions,2015,14:26-44.
[13] 李珒,战建华.中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁与政策工具选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):198-208.
[14] 周燕,潘遥.财政补贴与税收减免——交易费用视角下的新能源汽车产业政策分析[J].管理世界,2019,35(10):133-149.
[15] 高秀平,彭月兰.我国新能源汽车财税政策效应与时变研究——基于A股新能源汽车上市公司的实证分析[J].经济问题,2018,40(1):49-56.
[16] 孙慧芳,王阳.“双积分”政策下新能源汽车供应链横向竞合研发博弈[J].数学的实践与认识,2020,50(22):67-77.
[17] 曹霞,李传云,于娟,等.市场机制和政府调控下的产学研合作创新网络演化博弈仿真——以新能源汽车产业为例[J].系统管理学报,2020,29(3):464-474.
[18] 徐建中,孙颖.市场机制和政府监管下新能源汽车产业合作创新演化博弈研究[J].运筹与管理,2020,29(5):143-151.
[19] 马少超,范英.基于时间序列协整的中国新能源汽车政策评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):117-124.
[20] 熊勇清,黄恬恬,李小龙.新能源汽车消费促进政策实施效果的区域差异性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(5):71-78.
[21] 陈洲,陈钊,陈诗一.阶梯式补贴与企业的策略反应——基于新能源汽车企业的分析[J].经济学动态,2021,62(2):32-49.
|
|
|
|
