|
|
|
| Identification and Breakthrough Path of China's Potential Independent and Controllable Key Products |
| Wang Wenping1,2,Wu Laifeng1 |
| (1.School of Economics and Management, Southeast University;2.National Development and Policy Research Institute, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China) |
|
|
|
|
Abstract In recent years, due to inadequate independent innovation capability in core technologies in some important fields, such as integrated circuits, precision optics, medical instruments and high-precision CNC machine tools, China has been confronted with technology bottlenecks. Many Chinese enterprises have been muscled out of the global supply chain and the overseas market, and some key products have the potential risk of being maliciously sanctioned. Hence, against the backdrop of anti-globalization, it is urgent to systematically sort out China's potential independent and controllable key product system, and find a scientific breakthrough path for China's potential independent and controllable key products based on China's existing product capabilities to make breakthroughs in the national development.#br#Through a literature review, it is found that most of the existing studies have two deficiencies. Firstly, only the key complex products that have been successfully broken through are studied, while the potential independent and controllable key products that have not been listed in the US Export Control Regulations but may face the risk of being cut off from the supply chain lack attention and systematic identification. Secondly, the existing research mainly focuses on the analysis of successful cases, and most of them are ex-post explanatory studies, and thus lack the complex adaptability to the breakthroughs of independent and controllable key products with the characteristic of multi-industry and multi-technology fusion. The breakthroughs of key products not only depend on existing product capabilities, but also often rely on the priority breakthrough of their indirectly related cross-industry core products or components, and thus there should be a cross-industry independent and controllable key product breakthrough link.#br#This paper selects 243 countries' export product data from 1995 to 2021 and constructs a global product space network with products as nodes, and the size of the nodes represents the global trade volume of the products; the relationship between nodes is the proximity of the comprehensive capabilities required for exporting two products. The model is used to identify global core products and China's potential independent and controllable key products. The priority index is constructed based on product capability and network core to analyze the breakthrough path of potential independent and controllable key products.#br#Research shows that among the 1 242 global core products in 2021, there are 54 potential independent and controllable key products in China, and they are mainly distributed in 9 fields, including machinery and electrical equipment, basic metal products, optical and medical precision instruments, chemical products and plastic and rubber products. Among them, the products in urgent need of technology breakthroughs are mainly high-end core products in the field of mechanical and electrical equipment and basic metal products, as well as basic core products in the fields of plastic and rubber products and chemical products. By further analyzing the characteristics of China's potential independent and controllable key products, it is found that China's dominant comparative advantage gap with the United States, Germany and Japan is small overall in terms of low-grade core products in the fields of chemical products, plastic and rubber products, and a few low-grade core products in the fields of basic metal products, machinery and electrical equipment. This shows that China already has the corresponding capacity foundation for primary products in the four fields of machinery and electrical equipment, basic metal products, chemical products, plastic and rubber products. Therefore, after fully considering the urgency of the overall product development strategy and the internal relevance of cross industry products, it is verified that the breakthrough path of China's potential independent and controllable key products is to make full use of the existing primary product capability foundation in the fields of mechanical and electrical equipment, basic metal products, chemical products, plastic and rubber products, and give priority to the breakthrough of basic key products in the fields of optical development and metal technology; if the product capability foundation and product core degree in these fields can be significantly improved, further breakthroughs will be made in high-end key products in these field, such as machinery and electrical equipment, optical and medical precision instruments, plastic and rubber products.#br#
|
|
Received: 24 October 2022
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 谭劲松,宋娟,王可欣,等.创新生态系统视角下核心企业突破关键核心技术“卡脖子”——以中国高速列车牵引系统为例[J/OL].南开管理评论:1-28[2022-06-16].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/12.1288.f.20220311.1333.002.html.
[2] 电科技.深圳富满微公司宣布量产射频芯片,华为Mate 50系列或重归5G序列[EB/OL].(2022-1-18)[2022-7-1].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1722270511502219864 &wfr=spider&for=pc.
[3] 央视新闻客户端.多项技术实现突破,上海光机所疫情期间封闭攻关[EB/OL].(2022-5-6)[2022-7-1].https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=10958322284125934585.
[4] HOBDAY M.East-asian latecomer firms:learning the technology of electronics[J].World Development,1995,23(7):1171-1193.
[5] 苏敬勤,洪勇.后发国家企业技术能力发展理论与实证研究[J].管理评论,2008,20(3):31-38.
[6] BREZIS E S,KRUGMAN P R,TSIDDON D.Leapfrogging in international competition:a theory of cycles in national technological leadership[J].American Economic Review,1993(5):1211-1219.
[7] PEREZ C.Technological change and opportunities for development as a moving target[J].Cepal Review,2003(8):113-117.
[8] HAUSMANN R,KLINGER B.The structure of the product space and the evolution of comparative advantage[R].Cambridge,MA:Center for International Development at Harvard University,2007.
[9] HIDALGO C A,KLINGER B,BARABASI AL,et al.The product space conditions the development of nations[J].Science,2007,317(5837):482-487.
[10] 刘守英,杨继东.中国产业升级的演进与政策选择——基于产品空间的视角[J].管理世界,2019,35(6):81-94.
[11] BAHAR D,HAUSMANN R,HIDALGO C A.Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations:evidence of international knowledge diffusion[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(1):111-123.
[12] ZHU S J,HE C F,ZHOU Y.How to jump further and catch up? path-breaking in an uneven industry space[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2017,17(3):521-545.
[13] 王昶,何琪,耿红军,等.关键核心技术国产替代的逻辑、驱动因素与实现路径[J].经济学家,2022,34(3):99-108.
[14] 李显君,熊昱,冯堃.中国高铁产业核心技术突破路径与机制[J].科研管理,2020,41(10):1-10.
[15] BALASSA B.Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage[J].Manchester School,1965(2):99-123.
[16] HAUSMANN R,HIDALGO C A,BUSTOS M,et al.The atlas of economic complexity:mapping paths to prosperity[M].Massachusetts:MIT Press,2013.
[17] HAUSMANN R,KLINGER B.The evolution of comparative advantage:the impact of the structure of the product space[R].Center for International Development and Kennedy School of Government,Harvard University,2006.
|
|
|
|
