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| Technology Foresight Methods Based on K-means and Technology Life Cycle：Taking Water Purification Technology as an Example |
| Jian Zhaoquan1,Zhao Yuntong1,Zhang Shaoxuan2 |
| （1. School of Business Administration，South China University of Technology，Guangzhou 510640，China；2. Guangdong Academy of Environmental Sciences，Guangzhou 510030，China） |
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Abstract With the rapid development of China's economy, the water ecosystem has been heavily polluted. In order to curb the deterioration of the water environment, China has taken many actions since 2005, such as setting targets for urban sewage treatment and total pollutant discharge control, promulgating the action plan for water pollution prevention and control, and putting forward the goal of "beautiful China". With the growing demand for sewage treatment, the treatment process itself consumes a lot of chemical reagents, energy and fresh water resources, and also generates greenhouse gases and sludge waste. Moreover, when enterprises adopt the optimized water purification technology, they are confronted with the technology lock-in problem of a large number of switching costs, which restricts the upgrading of sewage treatment technology to some extent. Therefore, enterprises have to strengthen the R&D and upgrade of sewage treatment technology and reduce energy consumption and secondary environmental pollution. It is imperative for enterprises to choose the correct sewage treatment technology and accurately predict the development direction of water purification technology.#br#At present, the mainstream technology foresight methods include qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis methods require a lot of time and cost, and the conclusions are vulnerable to cognitive bias. Moreover, it is impossible to objectively measure the accuracy of experts' judgment. In the quantitative analysis method, most scholars use the patent static index for technology forecast analysis, but there are problems such as incomplete evaluation index and unreasonable measurement method. Moreover according to the static index analysis, only the most promising technologies can be analyzed, and it is impossible to analyze the development stage of the existing technologies, nor judge whether the existing technologies are in the recession period. Therefore, it is necessary further improve the effectiveness and efficiency of technology foresight methods.#br#This study retrieved 3 552 sewage treatment technology patents issued from 2008 to 2019 from the Innography database. The database includes patents registered in multiple patent offices, such as the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the European Patent Office. Firstly, the patent intrinsic knowledge attributes were classified according to multi-dimensional scaling analysis and K-means clustering method. Secondly, the static index ( patent internal attributes, external evaluation and overall evaluation) was taken to evaluate the technical prospects of the obtained patent clustering. Thirdly, the development stage of each type of technology was addressed with the technology life cycle analysis to speculate the future development trend of the technology. Finally, the accuracy of the above findings was verified using patent data published in 2016—2019.#br#The study draws four conclusions. (1) The technology foresight method combining multi-dimensional scaling analysis and K-means clustering is more robust. (2) Sustainable technology is the mainstream technology paradigm in the future. These technologies are in the transition period from the introduction stage to the development stage. They have broad development space in terms of technology and commercial value. (3) From 2008 to 2019, the technical structure of the water purification industry have been changed, and the technology of removing specific pollutants was gradually eliminated. (4) Although the growth trend of physical and chemical technology patents is slower than that of sustainable technologies, it is still the main choice of enterprises. #br# Combined with the current situation of the sewage treatment industry, this paper puts forward the following suggestions. (1) In the future, when solving the problem of wastewater purification and discharge compliance, the recycling of resources (pollutants) should be pursued to realize green innovation in the whole process of emission reduction, energy saving and resource recycling. (2) Enterprises should choose water treatment technology with positive "net benefit" (pollutant treatment benefit + environmental benefit), such as photocatalytic degradation technology. While achieving the sewage discharge target, we should also consider the negative impact of the sewage treatment process on the environment. (3) In the process of sewage treatment, enterprises can integrate multiple types of technologies, such as combining physical and chemical technologies with sustainable technologies because it can reduce the conversion cost of enterprises adopting new technologies.#br#The technology foresight method in this paper avoids the problem of systematic errors that may exist in the previous technology foresight. It not only considers the technical knowledge contained in the patent, but also analyzes the patent novelty, market acceptance and technology development stage. This research judges technology based on multiple indicators and the combination of dynamic and static methods of technology life cycle analysis and improve the reliability of technology forecasting method. It provides a reference for future technology foresight research and for enterprises to select and develop future water purification technology.#br#
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Received: 19 July 2021
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