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| Research on the Impact of Industrial Policy on Technological Innovation from the Perspective of China′s Capacity Reduction |
| Xi Jianming,Wu Hanran |
| (School of Economics，Peking University，Beijing 100871，China) |
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Abstract Based on the inter-sector transmission perspective of policy effect, a multi-sector general equilibrium model including the upstream energy sector, the midstream power sector and the downstream production sector is established to depict China's capacity reduction policy implemented in 2015 in the way of exogenous impact on the production function of high energy-consuming industries. Through the calibration model, the core endogenous variables are analyzed in the period of policy impact compared with the balanced growth path changes in the path period. The results show that: first, the policy of capacity reduction at the cost of "short-term pain" can achieve the primary policy goal of boosting the price of excess industrial products; second, under the endogenous setting of technological innovation in the energy sector, the policy of capacity reduction can increase the proportion of green energy in the total energy use and achieve the "green structure effect"; third, the policy of capacity reduction can reduce the green energy to achieve green cost-effectively. Furthermore, price policy is introduced to simulate the policy scenario, and the policy cost of the endogenous technology model and exogenous technology model is compared to achieve the same emission reduction goal. It is found that endogenous technology can acquire the emission reduction goal with a lower tax rate and less welfare loss. The conclusion shows that endogenous technological innovation is the crucial link to improve the transmission of capacity reduction policy and reduce the cost of the policy. It promotes the market boost of downstream surplus Industries and the green transformation of the upstream energy sector. It provides a new perspective of the interaction between industrial policy and technological innovation for supply-side reform research.
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Received: 27 October 2020
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