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| Research for the Potentiality of China to Leapfrog the Middle Income Trap |
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Abstract At present, China is in the juncture of changing the mode of development, optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum. The juncture means that it is possible to be stagnation or retrogression of national economy as the national innovation ability is insufficient, then sticking in the middleincome trap (MIC) for a long time. To avoid this trap, this paper calculates and compares patents' technology cycle time(TCT), based on Keun Lee theory, of China, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions from data base of the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office in recent 30 years. Combining the TCT with the GDP per capita, the paper concludes that China has crossed short TCT's point, and moving toward long TCT at present, which indicates that China has the capability to avoid the MIC. Then introduces the index of per capita GDP, global innovation index (GII) and TFP as further tests and draws a consistent conclusion. Finally, suggestions for enhancing and sustainability of China's innovation capability are put forward.
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