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| The Dynamics of Generic Technology Emergence Based on TERGMs: The Example of Supercapacitor Green Energy Storage Technology |
| Tang Yujie1,Li Yang2 |
| (1.College of Economics and Management, Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,Zhengzhou 450002,China;2.School of Management, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450002, China) |
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Abstract Since the technology emergence theory has gained much research attention, scholars have discussed the emergence of new technologies,technology breakthroughs and creative technologies.However, under the new wave of technological revolution and "anti-globalization," international industrial competition extends from frontier technology to generic technology.Because generic technology can be applied in many industries and restrict the development of industry technology,the emergence mechanism of the generic technology can provide a beneficial reference for China to break through the technology blockade and realize scientific and technological self-reliance.However, few studies have explored the emergence of generic technologies, failing to answer questions such as where they come from, why they arise, and what the emergence mechanism is.Reviewing the existing research on generic technology, this study confirms that the two research themes are "generic technology supply" and "generic technology identification." However, current studies have yet to answer the question of how generic technology emerges, which provides a research opportunity for this paper.#br#According to the technology emergence theory, technology emergence refers to the dynamic evolution process in which technology synergy, novelty, functionality, and other dynamic factors at the micro level can promote the continuous establishment and maintenance of long-term interactive relations among technologies in a highly creative technology network, and thus promote the gradual emergence of technologies at the macro level.Following this theory, this study adopts the TERGMs (time-series exponential stochastic model) method and constructs a dynamic model for the emergence of generic technologies to reveal the dynamic mechanism driven by the dynamic factors of technology synergy, novelty and functionality.#br#This paper takes the supercapacitor energy storage technology as an example because supercapacitor energy storage technology is a new green technology with an electric energy storage function.In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, several generic technologies are likely to emerge in this domain.First,the study obtains the IPC code for identifying electrical energy storage according to the IPC green inventory provided by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).Then, this paper uses the De Winter Index of Innovation (DII) as the patent data source and finally gets 9 033 supercapacitor energy storage technology patents from 1985 to 2021.Using TERGMs, the study empirically tests the driving effects of synergism (indicators including k-star, k-triangle, and k-twopath), novelty (indicators including forward citation, backward citation, and science citation) and functionality (indicators including portfolio size and industry diversity) on the emergence of co-occurring technologies.#br#The results show that k-star and k-triangle significantly contribute to the emergence of generic technologies for technology synergy, while k-twopath is not significant.For technology novelty, forward citation significantly contributes to the emergence of generic technologies, while science citation has a significant negative effect, and backward citation does not have a significant effect.For technology functionality, industry diversity significantly contributes to the emergence of generic technologies, while portfolio size has no significant impact.#br#This paper has implications for companies and governments in understanding how generic technology emerges.(1)Compared with the backward reference, technologies with a more forward reference are more likely to become generic technologies because these technologies usually have strong technical influence.In addition, technologies with more scientific citations also have the potential to grow into generic technologies because they are closer to scientific discovery.Finally, the technologies with cross-industry application scenarios should also be paid attention to,as these technologies may become essential for the collaborative development of multi-industries.(2) Because of the "Matthew effect", the core technologies in the center of the technology network usually develop into generic technologies and become the potential objects of technology blockade.To avoid the generic technology being “blocked,” the government should make relevant policies and create a loose research and development environment, guide technology researchers to explore the new track of technology development, and vigorously develop alternative technologies by using particular science and technology projects.Universities and research institutes are encouraged to conduct primary research on various alternative technologies by giving full play to their advantages, such as a complete range of disciplines and a concentration of talents.#br#
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Received: 25 August 2022
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