|
|
|
| Vulnerability Assessment of Key Core Technology Innovation Ecosystem Based on WOA-SVR: A Case Study of Integrated Circuit Technology |
| Xu Xueguo,Zhou shiyu |
| (School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444,China) |
|
|
|
|
Abstract At present, China is in a period with major strategic opportunities to promote innovation and development and the key opening period to the forefront of the world's scientific and technological power. The key technologies in core fields have pivotal impacts on promoting the high-quality development of China's economy and achieving the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. However, in recent years, developed countries have monopolized and blocked the key equipment, core technologies and operating systems, and the subsequent "lock-in effect" leads to a series of "decoupling" and "chain breaking". The crisis poses a serious challenge to the stable operation of the key technology innovation ecosystem. In the context that external shocks and perturbations are difficult to predict and change, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to alleviate the vulnerability of the ecosystem caused by uncertainties and achieve the sustainable development of the innovation ecosystem. At the same time, the IC industry is in a critical period of rapid development, but due to the huge technological barriers in the IC field, the imperfect domestic innovation system, and the existence of weak links in many key areas, the internal and external attacks have seriously hampered the development of China's electronic information industry, and thus the research on the vulnerability of the IC technology innovation ecosystem is urgent.#br#Driven by the diversified environment of ecological development, the organizational form of each innovation subject has undergone important changes, realizing the transformation from a static innovation system to a dynamic innovation ecosystem paradigm. As a result, the innovation ecosystem theory has triggered many scholars' discussions in academic circles, and scholars mostly focus on the connotation of innovation ecosystem, dynamic evolution characteristics and the obstacles in the evolution process for detailed analysis.The existing studies on key and core technology innovation ecosystems are insufficient, and there is a lack of research on the evolution of vulnerability characteristics, quantification of indicators, and driving mechanisms, etc. The research on a particular technological breakthrough is also in need of exploration.#br#Therefore this paper integrates theories related to system complexity and vulnerability connotation, constructs four subsystems of community, resource, economy and environment, and constructs an early warning system of key and core technology innovation ecosystem vulnerability with 19 indicators. The data sources are mainly collected through China's economic and social big data research platform, and the missing data for individual years are obtained by interpolation method. The indicators are approximately reduced by attributes based on the RF model, and the Critic method is applied to synthesize this ecosystem vulnerability index. The whale algorithm is introduced into the support vector machine regression model for optimization, and the Python software is used to compare the warning accuracy of each model and determine the best vulnerability warning model, and finally the typical bottleneck of IC technology is used as an example for empirical analysis. #br#The WOA-SVR vulnerability warning model shows that the overall IC innovation ecosystem is fragile, and the vulnerability index decreased from 4.28 to 2.66 from 2013-2020. It has entered the period of multi-subject competition and coexistence, and gradually forms an innovation system with collaborative innovation subjects and a flow of innovation factors. According to the results of IC innovation ecosystem vulnerability measurement, the corresponding prevention suggestions are proposed:first, the government should create a policy environment conducive to the deep integration of industry, academia and research; second, it is necessary to introduce risk governance clusters to guide the innovation ecosystem to evolve toward responsible innovation; third, it is essential to strengthen data sharing and use digital innovation to drive multi-subject co-governance. Focusing on the field of new-generation integrated circuit technology, this paper enriches the research on innovation drive and innovation governance from the perspective of complex science with the goal of achieving innovation structure upgrading.#br#
|
|
Received: 22 August 2022
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 王海军. 关键核心技术创新的理论探究及中国情景下的突破路径[J].当代经济管理, 2021, 43(6): 43-50.
[2] 中共中央 国务院印发《国家创新驱动发展战略纲要》[N].人民日报,2016-05-20(001).
[3] 罗军,侯小星,陈之瑶. 央地联动发挥新型举国体制优势开展关键核心技术攻关研究[J].科技管理研究, 2021, 41(23): 48-55.
[4] 张杰,陈容. 产业链视角下中国关键核心技术创新的突破路径与对策[J].南通大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 38(2): 116-126.
[5] 汤志伟,李昱璇,张龙鹏. 中美贸易摩擦背景下“卡脖子”技术识别方法与突破路径——以电子信息产业为例[J].科技进步与对策, 2021, 38(1): 1-9.
[6] 韩凤芹,史卫,陈亚平. 以大战略观统领关键核心技术攻关[J].宏观经济研究, 2021, 43(3): 111-119, 159.
[7] 张杰. 中国关键核心技术创新的特征、阻碍和突破[J].江苏行政学院学报, 2019, 19(2): 43-52.
[8] 余江,陈凤,张越,等. 铸造强国重器:关键核心技术突破的规律探索与体系构建[J].中国科学院院刊, 2019, 34(3): 339-343.
[9] 毛荐其,杜艳婷,苗成林,等. 基于专利共类的关键核心技术识别模型构建及应用——以光刻技术为例[J].情报杂志,2022,41(11): 48-54.
[10] 周雷,杨萍,龚,等. 结合商业数据库的行业关键垄断技术识别研究——以半导体行业为例[J].情报杂志, 2019, 38(6): 30-37, 6.
[11] 曾宪奎. 我国构建关键核心技术攻关新型举国体制研究[J].湖北社会科学, 2020, 34(3): 26-33.
[12] 任继球. 澄清认识 加快构建“卡脖子”技术攻关长效机制[J].宏观经济管理, 2021, 37(4): 19-25, 33.
[13] 欧阳桃花,曾德麟. 拨云见日——揭示中国盾构机技术赶超的艰辛与辉煌[J].管理世界, 2021, 37(8): 194-207.
[14] 方炜,唐路路,孙泽华,等. 新型举国体制下大飞机产业科技创新动力机制研究[J].中国科技论坛, 2021, 37(7): 57-65.
[15] 陈健,高太山,柳卸林,等. 创新生态系统:概念、理论基础与治理[J].科技进步与对策, 2016, 33(17): 153-160.
[16] 曾赛星,陈宏权,金治州,等. 重大工程创新生态系统演化及创新力提升[J].管理世界, 2019, 35(4): 28-38.
[17] 吴菲菲,童奕铭,黄鲁成. 中国高技术产业创新生态系统有机性评价——创新四螺旋视角[J].科技进步与对策, 2020, 37(5): 67-76.
[18] 孙丽文,李跃. 京津冀区域创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价[J].科技进步与对策, 2017, 34(4): 47-53.
[19] 陈衍泰,夏敏,李欠强,等. 创新生态系统研究:定性评价、中国情境与理论方向[J].研究与发展管理, 2018, 30(4): 37-53.
[20] 谭劲松,宋娟,陈晓红. 产业创新生态系统的形成与演进:“架构者”变迁及其战略行为演变[J].管理世界, 2021, 37(9): 167-191.
[21] 张路路,郑新奇,张春晓,等. 基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析[J].自然资源学报, 2016, 31(11): 1858-1870.
[22] 王治平. 高勘探开发油区生态系统脆弱性评价模型研究[D].青岛:中国石油大学(华东), 2012.
[23] 梁林,赵玉帛,刘兵. 国家级新区创新生态系统韧性监测与预警研究[J].中国软科学, 2020, 35(7): 92-111.
[24] POLSKY C, NEFF R, YARNAL B.Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: the vulnerability scoping diagram[J].Global Environmental Change, 2007, 17(34): 472-485.
[25] 黄建毅,刘毅,马丽,等. 国外脆弱性理论模型与评估框架研究评述[J].地域研究与开发, 2012, 31(5): 1-5, 15.
[26] 方匡南,吴见彬,朱建平,等. 随机森林方法研究综述[J].统计与信息论坛, 2011, 26(3): 32-38.
[27] 林玲,陈福集,谢加良,等. 基于改进灰狼优化支持向量回归的网络舆情预测[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2022, 42(2): 487-498.
[28] 吴泽忠,宋菲. 基于改进螺旋更新位置模型的鲸鱼优化算法[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2019, 39(11): 2928-2944.
[29] 吴晓波,张馨月,沈华杰. 商业模式创新视角下我国半导体产业“突围”之路[J].管理世界, 2021, 37(3): 123-136, 9.
[30] 张玉,魏华波. 基于CRITIC的多属性决策组合赋权方法[J].统计与决策, 2012, 28(16): 75-77.
|
|
|
|
