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| Can Market-based Environmental Regulation Promote China to Achieve the Goal of Carbon Neutrality |
| Hu Di1,Yuan Mengyi2 |
| (1.School of Statistics, Capital University of Economics and Business;2.School of Finance, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China) |
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Abstract With the rapid economic growth in 40 years, China′s energy consumption and CO2 emissions have been on the rise, leading to serious energy crises and climate problems. Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals has become an inherent requirement for promoting China's high-quality development. The Chinese government has set the goals of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. "Carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality" cannot be achieved overnight. Compared with western developed economies, the market environment and institutional conditions of China's economy are of their uniqueness. What stage has China's carbon neutrality reached? Can the market-based incentive environmental governance policy represented by carbon emissions trading effectively promote the realization of China's carbon neutrality? What are the channel and mechanism of the market-oriented carbon governance policy on the goal of carbon neutrality? These questions need to be answered by systematic measurement and empirical tests.#br#This paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces in the mainland of China from 2005 to 2020, constructs and calculates a series of indicators of the carbon neutrality process from multiple dimensions such as the total amount, per capita and per GDP, and analyzes the time and spatial characteristics of the carbon neutrality process in different provinces. On this basis, it conducts the quasi-natural experiment of carbon emission trading pilots to evaluate the policy effect of carbon emission trading by the synthetic control method, and explores the impact and mechanism of market incentive-oriented environmental regulations on the realization of carbon neutrality goals in different provinces.#br#The research finds that firstly, China's carbon neutralization process shows a relatively obvious inverted V-phasic feature, and the process of carbon neutralization is gradually decoupled from economic development, and the overall high-quality development of the economy is gradually realized; secondly, different regions and provinces present differentiated carbon neutralization processes; thirdly, market-based environmental regulations represented by carbon emission trading policies can help to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, of which the carbon trading mechanism has the greatest promotion effect on the process of carbon neutrality in Guangdong Province. Further analysis finds that carbon emission trading policies can promote technological innovation and improve energy efficiency of enterprises, and incentivize enterprises to use clean energy and improve energy structure, thereby reducing the carbon neutrality index and promoting the realization of carbon neutrality goals.#br#The conclusions of this paper enrich the research on the effects of carbon neutrality and market-oriented environmental regulation policies. Different from previous literature, this paper provides a scientific measurement index to quantify the carbon neutralization process, and makes a scientific judgment on the regional heterogeneity and periodicity of China's carbon neutralization process. It further expands and extends the policy effect of carbon emissions trading pilot on carbon emissions to the carbon neutrality goal, and confirms from the theoretical analysis and empirical test that market-based environmental regulation promotes the realization of carbon neutrality goal through energy structure and energy efficiency. This study provides support for the improvement and optimization of the carbon emissions trading market, and proposes policy recommendations for promoting the carbon neutrality index of each province to gradually drop to zero, and the realization of the provincial carbon neutrality goal.#br#In view of the differences in industrial advantages and economic development, different regions should establish suitable paths to realize heterogeneous carbon neutrality; regional differences should be fully considered in the design and improvement of carbon market elements to maintain certain flexibility. There is still room for optimization in the calculation of carbon sink in the carbon neutralization index. Due to the limitation of data and methods, only the carbon sink of terrestrial vegetation is considered, and the carbon sink calculation of oceans, lakes and other water bodies has not been included, and the industrial carbon sink technology has not been included in the research scope. Thus future research is expected to explore more accurate carbon neutralization index measurement methods to improve the accuracy and applicability of research results.#br#
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Received: 05 January 2023
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