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| Path Dependence in Technology Evolution from the Perspective of Patent Families： An Example of Lithography |
| Yang Wu,Chen Pei,Gad David |
| (School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083, China) |
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Abstract Path dependence may be defined over a spectrum of phenomena ranging from mere dependence upon initial conditions to strong dependence upon specific events unfolding. It is observable at various layers of the economic system from the individual up to the aggregate system level. At the technology level, path dependence shows up when there is persistence and lock-in to particular technological choices. Tracing technology evolution paths is crucial for monitoring technological innovation progress, and main paths are one of the effective methods for identifying core technology trajectories in complex patent citation networks. However, most studies ignore the critical role played by patent families in citation networks, resulting in main paths that do not accurately describe the path evolution of technology and technology fields. Therefore, existing studies have limited practical and theoretical implications. In addition, the process of technology evolution varies greatly, and each phase has different characteristics and performance, so it is imperative to analyze the main path in conjunction with the prevailing technological context and path-dependent features. The historical pattern of technological development plays a prominent role in determining the path of future technological change.#br#This study describes the path dependence in the technology dynamic path evolution, focusing on the patent family as the research perspective. Path dependence is explained by distinguishing between fundamental and secondary knowledge. The study proposes a new method to correct the main paths in a technological domain by adjusting the patent family self-citation on the main path that interferes and leads to misinterpretation of core technologies. The empirical results show the four stages in the path evolution of lithography; projection alignment and exposure system, projection objective immersion, immersion lithography material and photoresist go through a dynamic cycle process of path dissolution, path generation, path dependence, path dissolution and breakthrough. In this process, ASML, ZEISS, and Tokyo Electron as the representatives of the patent family, play a significant role in lithography evolution. According to the network centrality analysis, it is found that Zeiss, ASML, and IBM occupy a high centrality degree position in all stages of development. ASML belongs to the EUV LLC alliance. With this alliance, partners can achieve maximum technological knowledge sharing that helps them maintain the monopoly of core technologies in each stage of evolution. The big gap between China and developed countries, and the fact that Chinese leading local enterprises neither appear in the main path nor the network of patent owners, indicates that the mainstream market inhibits technological innovation in latecomer's countries, and China's technological capability is not yet able to change the status quo of technological constraint.#br#The study contributes to the existing research on technology trajectories by highlighting patent families' influence and misleading information in technology development. It proposes a correction scheme for the deviation of the main path, and provides a new idea to exclude the interference of some technologies in the main path that leads to the wrong analysis of the technology trajectories. In addition to describing the path evolution process, the study penetrates the field of lithography segmentation, thereby bridging the gap between path dependence theory and existing empirical evidence, enriching the previous studies on the path dependence theory from the perspective of market subjects. On the other hand, the study shows that latecomers can improve their independent innovation capacity and innovation efficiency through resource complementation and technology sharing by building a solid technology network platform or technology R&D alliance with complementary resources. In this vein, through a cooperative alliance with lithography newcomers, latecomers can obtain external resource advantages through relationship capital and collaborative innovation to promote the diversified development of domestic enterprises. It suggests that path creation relies on long-term resource investment and technology accumulation of an enterprise. Finally, at the technology level, the dynamic development of technology requires technology strategy to adapt to the law of technology path evolution. Since the technology pioneers have locked latecomers, latecomers should avoid investment in R&D of backward technology. The fourth phase is trajectory dissipation. Therefore, companies must inevitably provide EUV-related technologies that may be the driving force to get rid of the path dependence. The new intermittent innovation technologies will split the initial order of the evolution of the technology trajectory, and provide a window of opportunities for Chinese lithography companies to make a technological breakthrough. This study contributes to understanding the path dependence dynamic theory. It reveals lithography industry and enterprise paradigm evolution more precisely to provide reference strategies for developing countries to overcome technological path dependence.#br#
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Received: 10 November 2021
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