|
|
Corporate Foresight:Conceptualization and Process Mechanism |
Zhang Zhengang1,2,3,Chen Yihua1 |
(1. School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;2. Guangdong Think Tank for Science and Technology Revolution and Technology Foresight, Guangzhou 510640, China;3. Guangzhou Research Center for Innovation System of Large-Scale Enterprise, Guangzhou 510640, China) |
|
|
Abstract As a new field of research, the study on corporate foresight is now very fragmented. Apart from the unclear process mechanism and weak theoretical foundation, some divergences are also discovered in the connotation of the concept of corporate foresight. With the hope of improving the study of corporate foresight, this paper analyzes the structural ambidexterity, three characteristics and the mechanism of three-stage process,as well as an eight-step process basing on the conception of corporate foresight. In final, some suggestions with the hope of providing analytical framework and clues were presented for corporate foresight research, expecting more scholars to pay attention to this research field and promoting the development of this research.
|
Received: 25 June 2019
|
|
|
|
|
[1] ROHRBECK R, BATTISTELLA C, HUIZINGH E. Corporate foresight: an emerging field with a rich tradition[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015, 101:1-9.[2]GRACHT H A V D, VENNEMANN C R, DARKOW I L. Corporate foresight and innovation management: a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development[J]. Futures, 2010, 42(4):380-393.[3]FIDLER D. Foresight defined as a component of strategic management[J]. Futures, 2011, 43(5):540-544.[4]MACKAY R B, MCKIERNAN P. Exploring strategy context with foresight[J]. European Management Review, 2004, 1(1):69-77.[5]MAJOR E, ASCH D, CORDEY-HAYES M. Foresight as a core competence[J]. Futures, 2001, 33(2):91-107.[6]ROLLWAGEN I, HOFMANN J, SCHNEIDER S. Improving the business impact of foresight[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2008, 20(3):337-349.[7]SLAUGHTER R A. Foresight beyond strategy: social initiatives by business and government[J]. Long Range Planning, 1996, 29(2):156-163.[8]ROHRBECK R. Exploring value creation from corporate-foresight activities[J]. Futures, 2012, 44(5):440-452.[9]GEORGHIOU L, HARPER J C. From priority-setting to articulation of demand: foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy[J]. Futures, 2011, 43(3):243-251.[10] ROHRBECK R, GEMNDEN H G. Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2011, 78(2):231-243.[11]VECCHIATO R, ROVEDA C. Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2010, 77(9):1527-1539.[12]IDEN J, METHLIE L B, CHRISTENSEN G E. The nature of strategic foresight research: a systematic literature review[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, 116:87-97.[13]VECCHIATO R, ROVEDA C. Foresight in corporate organizations[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2009, 22(1):99-112.[14]SLAUGHTER R A. Developing and applying strategic foresight[R]. 1997, ABN Report 5:13-27.[15]TSOUKAS H, SHEPHERD J. Coping with the future: developing organizational foresight fulness[J]. Futures, 2004, 36(2):137-144.[16]AHUJIA G, COFF R W, LEE P M. Managerial foresight and attempted rent appropriation: insider trading on knowledge of imminent breakthroughs[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 26(9):791-808.[17]VECCHIATO R. Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2012, 24(8):783-796.[18]BATTISTELLA C. The organisation of corporate foresight: a multiple case study in the telecommunication industry[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2014, 87(7):60-79.[19]RHISIART M, MILLER R, BROOKS S. Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015, 101:124-133.[20]DARKOW I L. The involvement of middle management in strategy development-development and implementation of a foresight-based approach[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015, 101:10-24.[21]GAVETTI G, LEVINTHAL D. Looking forward and looking backward: cognitive and experiential search[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 2000, 45(1):113-137.[22]SARPONG D, MACLEAN M, ALEXANDER E. Organizing strategic foresight: a contextual practice of 'way finding'[J]. Futures, 2013, 53:33-41.[23]SARPONG D, MACLEAN M. Unpacking strategic foresight: a practice approach[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Management, 2014, 30(1):16-26.[24]GEORGHIOU L. The UK technology foresight programme[J]. Futures, 1996, 28(4):359-377.[25]MARCH J G. Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning[J]. Organization Science, 1991, 2(1): 71-87.[26]RAISCH S, BIRKINSHAW J. Organizational ambidexterity: antecedents, outcomes, and moderators[J]. Journal of Management, 2008, 34(34):375-409.[27]WHITEHILL M. Strategy foresight: the future of strategy research[J]. Long Range Planning, 1996, 29(2):249-252.[28]TEECE D J, PISANO G, SHUEN A. Dynamic capabilities and strategic management[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1997, 18(7):509-533.[29]BEETON D A, PHAAL R, PROBERT D R. Exploratory roadmapping for foresight[J]. International Journal of Technology Intelligence & Planning, 2008, 4(4):398-412.[30]DUHAIME I M, SCHWENK C R. Conjectures on cognitive simplification in acquisition and divestment decision making[J]. Academy of Management Review, 1985, 10(2):287-295.[31]GAVETTI G, LEVINTHAL D, OCASIO W. Neo-carnegie: the carnegie school's past, present, and reconstructing for the future[J]. Organization Science, 2007, 18(3):523-536.[32]AMASON A C. Distinguishing the effects of functional and dysfunctional conflict on strategic decision making: resolving a paradox for top management teams[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1996, 39(1):123-148.[33]TRIPSAS M, GAVETTI G. Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: evidence from digital imaging[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2000, 21(10-11):1147-1161.[34]BLACKMAN D A, HENDERSON S. How foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of doubting[J]. Futures, 2004, 36(2):253-266.[35]BURGEL H D, REGER G, ACKEL-ZAKOUR R. Technology foresight: experiences from companies operating worldwide[J]. International Journal of Services Technology & Management, 2000, 1(4):395-413.[36]FRANCHIMONT P, DEMOULIN A, BOURGUIGNON J P, et al. Technology foresight and industrial strategy[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015, 110(3):117-125.[37]BIES R J, BARTUNEK J M, FORT T L, et al. Introduction to special topic forum: corporations as social change agents: individual, interpersonal, institutional, and environmental dynamics[J]. Academy of Management Review, 2007, 32(3):788-793.[38]LEWIN A Y, VOLBERDA H W. Prolegomena on coevolution: a framework for research on strategy and new organizational forms[J]. Organization Science, 1999, 10(5):519-534.[39]HREBINIAK L G, JOYCE W F. Organizational adaptation: strategic choice and environmental determinism[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 1985, 30(3):336-349.[40]HJLAND J,ROHRBECK R.The role of corporate foresight in exploring new markets – evidence from 3 case studies in the BOP markets[J]. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 2018, 30(6):734-746.[41]O'BRIEN F A, MEADOWS M. Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013, 80(4):643-656.[42]张军, 张素平, 许庆瑞. 企业动态能力构建的组织机制研究——基于知识共享与集体解释视角的案例研究[J]. 科学学研究, 2012, 30(9):1405-1415.[43]TAPINOS E. Perceived environmental uncertainty in scenario planning[J]. Futures, 2012, 44(4):338-345.[44]DAHEIM C, UERZ G. Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2008, 20(3):321-336.[45]OCASIO W. Towards an attention-based view of the firm[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1997, 18(S1):187-206.[46]RAMREZ R, STERMAN R, GRNQUIST D. Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013, 80(4):825-838.[47]COHEN M D, MARCH J G, OLSEN J P. A garbage can model of organizational choice[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 1972, 17(1):1-25.[48]HEGER T, ROHRBECK R. Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2012, 79(5):819-831.[49]马骏, 席酉民, 曾宪聚. 战略的选择:管理认知与经验搜索[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2007, 28(11):114-119.[50]GAVETTI G, LEVINTHAL D A, RIVKIN J W. Strategy making in novel and complex worlds: the power of analogy[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2010, 26(8):691-712.[51]ROHRBECK R, SCHWARZ J O. The value contribution of strategic foresight: insights from an empirical study of large European companies[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013, 80(8):1593-1606. [52]YOON J, KIM Y, VONORTAS N S, et al. Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organisational learning[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2017:1-13. |
|
|
|