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| Analysis on the Influence of Industrial Structure's Change and the Coordinated Development of Economy in the GuangdongHong KongMacao Bay Area |
| Zhang Zhen |
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Abstract This paper divided the change of industrial structure into rationalization and upgrading. Based on the GuangdongHong KongMacao Greater Bay Area's economic data during 1995 to 2016, it measured the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, the coordination of economy's level. While, with the model of industrial structure change and economic coordination's level build, the relationship between them is quantitatively evaluated: the GuangdongHong KongMacao Greater Bay Area's industrial structure change was volatile, the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure' level was on the rise, whereas large swings in the rationalization level. The level of coordinated economic development fluctuated slightly during the main research period, but the sharp drop in 1998 and 2015 resulted in a large overall change. The relationship between industrial structure change and coordinated economic development was stable. In the future, for long term the ascension of economic coordination' level was beneficial to rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, but for the short term the upgrading would hinder the rationalization process, while, the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure's change would have an inhibitory effect of the coordinated economic development over a longer period time. From the relation of economic development and growth, the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure would accelerate the process of high level economic coordinated development. Variance decomposition result showed that the effect of barriers and promote between industrial structure and the coordination of economy mainly came from its own recently, but for the longterm changes in industrial structure in addition to be impacted by itself, was greatly influenced by economic coordinated development.
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