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| Risk Assessment and Early Warning System of Science and Technology Security |
| Cai Jinsong1,Ma Qi1,Tan Shuang2 |
| (1.School of Public Administration, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China；2.School of Law and Humanities, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China) |
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Abstract Science and technology security is an important component of national security. However, the complex international situation, rigorous technical restrictions and the subversive development trend of contemporary science and technology have triggered a series of major issues related to science and technology security, which also have brought tough challenges to China's national security. Science and technology security is affected by many endogenous and exogenous factors, like national technology strategy, innovation capacity, technology management system, resources, talents, technical industry, and other multifaceted conditions. In the face of scientific and technological security risks, in addition to improving the ability of scientific and technological innovation, it is equally important to prevent problems before they occur. As for those risks that may endanger scientific and technological security, advance prevention and timely warning are in pressing need.#br#This study is a combination of normative and empirical analysis to explore the meaning and elements of science and technology security in China, and to clarify the framework of science and technology security assessment and early warning mechanism, which may contribute some ideas and theoretical supports for improving the monitoring and early warning system of science and technology security. From the perspective of risk assessment and security early warning, this research follows the early warning logic of “variable design-data evaluation-security early warning-plan call”, combines the analytic hierarchy process and expert grading method, and constructs the “science and technology security risk assessment framework” and the “science and technology security early warning system”. Among them, the “science and technology security risk assessment framework” is developed with normative reasoning and grounded theory method. Both first-hand and second-hand text materials are involved, including in-depth expert interviews, policy documents, literatures, newspapers and so on. By employing a three-step text analysis, an assessment framework including four kinds of key evaluation indicators (essentiality, reflexivity, autonomy, and security) is developed.#br# Theearly warning mechanism of science and technology security is based on the risk assessment framework. Before developing the mechanism, an early warning logic is clarified. Generally, in the engineering control logic of early warning, it is necessary to set and clarify the science and technology security early warning objectives and targets. And then, a series of variables and indicators related with the target should be assessed. After that, a conclusion of safety level can be calculated. To assessing the risk variables and indicators, there are some necessary tasks, including risk variables identification, weighting, ordering and some other calculation. This study provides an approach to weighting science and technology risk variables and to calculating safety levels. On the basis of the“science and technology security risk assessment framework” and the analysis of early warning logics and techniques, the mechanism of science and technology security early warning is developed. The mechanism mainly relies on the modules of emergency assessment, emergency report, decision-making management, and contingency plan, which involving multiple variables and subjects, and the four modules operate circularly in practice.#br#In summary, this study focuses on the risk assessment and early warning mechanism of science and technology security in China by developing and clarifying the assessment framework and early warning methods. In the process of constructing the science and technology security early warning mechanism, this study systematically analyzes the science and technology security early warning logic, hoping to provide new ideas for China's science and technology governance and security.#br#In future research, the identification and assessment of S&T security risks can be more widely incorporated into quantitative and textual data corresponding to different core technology fields,so as to further refine evaluation indicators and improve their usability and computability. In view of the predictability and timeliness of science and technology security monitoring and early warning, the follow-up research could aim at a science and technology security monitoring and early warning system, develop a large sample database and case base of science and technology security, combine data science research paradigm to establish a continuous intelligent prediction model of science and technology security monitoring and early warning, and improve the overall early warning research and judgment efficiency.#br#
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Received: 16 June 2021
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