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| Time and Space Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Technology Innovation Capability in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area |
| Meng Fei,Lu Zhiguo |
| （School of Economics, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518000,China） |
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Abstract The paper uses the methods of extreme difference, coefficient of variation, Gini coefficient and ESDA to investigate the the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution and spatial correlation model of urban technology innovation capability in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, and analyze the influence of cities through the spatial panel Dubin model.The key factors of technological innovation capability, combined with the threshold panel model, further explore the impact of core innovation elements on urban technological innovation capabilities under the threshold effect of economic development level.The results show that: ①the city's technological innovation capability is generally on the rise.After 2014, the growth rate is accelerating, and the technological innovation capability of each city is balanced; ②the city's technological innovation capability is characterized by "central-periphery", and the "central" city is located in the southeastern part of the region.In the eastern bank of the Pearl River Estuary, the spatial correlation model is mainly represented by HH type and LL type; ③human capital and R&D expenditures have significantly promoted the city's technological innovation ability, but the spillover effect of human capital is significantly negative, and the R&D expenditure is negative.The spillover effect is not obvious; ④under the single threshold effect of economic development level, the influence of human capital on urban technological innovation ability rises first and then falls.The promotion effect of R&D investment on urban technological innovation ability is not obvious as the urban economic development level crosses the threshold value.
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Received: 28 November 2019
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